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On top of a series of recent polls that seem to show him opening up a huge lead over his Democratic opponent, Rand Paul is out with his first television ad of the General Election season:

• Rand Paul Still Leading In Latest Kentucky Polls
• Rand Paul: “I Have A Message, We’ve Come To Take Our Government Back”
• Rand Paul Wins Kentucky Republican Senate Primary
• Grayson Supporters Ready To Torpedo Rand Paul In November ?
• Obama vs. McCain: The Electoral College

Well it was fun while it lasted.

Two years after the Virginia Republican Party finally freed itself of the tax-hiking label that cost it elections in 2005 and 2007, less than one year after Bob McDonnell rode opposition to tax increases to lead the best Republican year in the history of the Old Dominion, McDonnell himself is about to blow the whole thing sky high today.

Here’s the damage report from the surprisingly subdued Washington Post (I suppose the giddiness will be saved for the editorial page):

Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R) will unveil a proposal Wednesday to impose a 4 percent tax on restaurants and bars as he tries to make up for $260 million the state could lose in taxes and profit if Virginia privatizes its liquor system, according to several sources familiar with the plan.

Included in the 4 percent is a 2.5 percent tax imposed solely on restaurants’ annual liquor receipts and a 1.5 percent tax imposed on restaurants and all stores that sell alcohol, including grocery stores. Together, they will bring in about $40 million, sources say.

McDonnell’s proposal also includes other fees, including a $17.50-per-gallon excise tax and a 1 percent tax on gross receipts, both charged to wholesalers, said Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple (D-Arlington), who was briefed on the plan late Tuesday.

Not one, not two, not three, but four new taxes proposed in one day - this from the man who promised all of us he wouldn’t raise taxes (although his refusal to sign the Taxpayer Protection Pledge takes on a more poignant meaning).  One of the taxes (the 1.5% tax) is tangential at best to the alcohol-privatization plan (which is not the subject of my rant here; the state should not be in the liquor business).

Already, restaurants are wondering what hit them (see Randy Norton’s quote in the WaPo piece).  Thankfully, Delegate Tom Gear – one of the most consistent defenders of the taxpayer in Richmond – has put up the red-flag on this (end of same piece).

The damage from this will be on several levels.

Economic: what was it Doug Wilder said again last year?  Ah yes, “This is not the time in our Commonwealth to talk about any tax increase” – and that was last September, when it was assumed recovery was on the way.  Now, recovery’s in a race with “double-dip” recession to claim 2011.  If anything, the last twelve months have made tax increases less justifiable. Moreover, whacking restaurants has the added pleasure of indirectly hurting tourism expenses.  All of this, mind you, is coming just as the Obama Administration is preparing to slam small businesses of all stripes with the reversal of the Bush-the-Younger tax cuts.

Finally, they will make the privatization of alcohol a much harder sell, and increase the likelihood that the birthplace of American liberty will remain one of social democracy’s unlikely redoubts in the hard liquor department.

Political: Doesn’t anyone in the McDonnell Administration remember 1990?  That was the year President Bush the Elder broke his “read my lips” pledge on taxes.  Before he broke his word, there was talk of the Republicans breaking the 36-year lock on Congress, and at least one poll had the two parties at parity in voter identification for the first time since World War II.  After the betrayal, the Democrats hammered the GOP, held their lopsided Congressional majorities, and voters drove Bush out of office in 1992 (his 38% remains the worst performance by an incumbent President outside of the Taft-Roosevelt split of 1912).  McDonnell will do less damage nationwide – he is only the Governor of Virginia – but I wouldn’t want to be Morgan Griffith, Keith Fimian, or Scott Rigell right now.  All of them could see whatever chance they had at victory slip away.  Even Robert Hurt could see defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

Don’t believe me?  Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw called this a tax “on people drinking alcohol” (WaPo) before the details were even leaked. He knows he won his majority by watching the GOP drown under tax increases. He’s already partying like it’s 2007.

So, in short, these tax increases are an unwelcome burden to the quest for a more limited government in the Commonwealth, bad for Virginia’s economy, and terrible for the Republican Party.

Perhaps we should have seen this coming with the manufacturer’s tax increase.

Cross-posted to BD

Well it was fun while it lasted.

Two years after the Virginia Republican Party finally freed itself of the tax-hiking label that cost it elections in 2005 and 2007, less than one year after Bob McDonnell rode opposition to tax increases to lead the best Republican year in the history of the Old Dominion, McDonnell himself is about to blow the whole thing sky high today.

Here’s the damage report from the surprisingly subdued Washington Post (I suppose the giddiness will be saved for the editorial page):

Gov. Robert F. McDonnell (R) will unveil a proposal Wednesday to impose a 4 percent tax on restaurants and bars as he tries to make up for $260 million the state could lose in taxes and profit if Virginia privatizes its liquor system, according to several sources familiar with the plan.

Included in the 4 percent is a 2.5 percent tax imposed solely on restaurants’ annual liquor receipts and a 1.5 percent tax imposed on restaurants and all stores that sell alcohol, including grocery stores (UPDATE-RWL NOTE: the latter is nowhere to be found in the Governor’s proposal; it may have been dropped). Together, they will bring in about $40 million, sources say.

McDonnell’s proposal also includes other fees, including a $17.50-per-gallon excise tax and a 1 percent tax on gross receipts, both charged to wholesalers, said Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple (D-Arlington), who was briefed on the plan late Tuesday.

Not one, not two, not three, but four three new taxes and tax increases proposed in one day - this from the man who promised all of us he wouldn’t raise taxes (although his refusal to sign the Taxpayer Protection Pledge takes on a more poignant meaning). One of the taxes (the 1.5% tax) is tangential at best to the alcohol-privatization plan (which is not the subject of my rant here; the state should not be in the liquor business). UPDATE: As noted above, this one appears to have been left on the cutting room floor.

Already, restaurants are wondering what hit them (see Randy Norton’s quote in the WaPo piece). Thankfully, Delegate Tom Gear – one of the most consistent defenders of the taxpayer in Richmond – has put up the red-flag on this (end of same piece).

UPDATE: The McDonnell Administration played some “linguistic ledgerdemain” with the 2.5% receipts tax, calling it an “optional convenience fee.” The “option” however, is solely the option to sell liquor. “Convenience fee” my foot; that’s a tax.

The 1% tax is being called a “wholesale license charge.” Riiiiiiiiight.

The $17.50/gallon tax is trickier, because it actually replaces a 20% liquor tax. Nice to see the WaPo had no idea about that one. Still, McDonnell is expecting $175.7 million from the new tax, well over the $111.4 million the current one generates. The Governor’s people say they expect higher sales, but their own “license charge” number anticipates sales of $710 million. The current tax would bring in only $142M under that scenario. So this isn’t a new tax, but it is a tax increase.

The damage from this will be on several levels.

Economic: what was it Doug Wilder said again last year? Ah yes, “This is not the time in our Commonwealth to talk about any tax increase” – and that was last September, when it was assumed recovery was on the way. Now, recovery’s in a race with “double-dip” recession to claim 2011. If anything, the last twelve months have made tax increases less justifiable. Moreover, whacking restaurants has the added pleasure of indirectly hurting tourism expenses. All of this, mind you, is coming just as the Obama Administration is preparing to slam small businesses of all stripes with the reversal of the Bush-the-Younger tax cuts.

Finally, they will make the privatization of alcohol a much harder sell, and increase the likelihood that the birthplace of American liberty will remain one of social democracy’s unlikely redoubts in the hard liquor department.

Political: Doesn’t anyone in the McDonnell Administration remember 1990? That was the year President Bush the Elder broke his “read my lips” pledge on taxes. Before he broke his word, there was talk of the Republicans breaking the 36-year lock on Congress, and at least one poll had the two parties at parity in voter identification for the first time since World War II. After the betrayal, the Democrats hammered the GOP, held their lopsided Congressional majorities, and voters drove Bush out of office in 1992 (his 38% remains the worst performance by an incumbent President outside of the Taft-Roosevelt split of 1912). McDonnell will do less damage nationwide – he is only the Governor of Virginia – but I wouldn’t want to be Morgan Griffith, Keith Fimian, or Scott Rigell right now. All of them could see whatever chance they had at victory slip away. Even Robert Hurt could see defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.

Don’t believe me? Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw called this a tax “on people drinking alcohol” (WaPo) before the details were even leaked. He knows he won his majority by watching the GOP drown under tax increases. He’s already partying like it’s 2007.

So, in short, these tax increases are an unwelcome burden to the quest for a more limited government in the Commonwealth, bad for Virginia’s economy, and terrible for the Republican Party.

Perhaps we should have seen this coming with the manufacturer’s tax increase.

Cross-posted to RWL

While no doubt the pundits in Virginia will be watching Scott Rigell, Robert Hurt, Morgan Griffith, and Keith Fimain, another race to look at is the County Board race in Arlington. While voters in 2010 have important national issues in mind like health care and the economy, there are an abundance of local issues in Arlington that mirror Virginia’s interests.

Mark Kelly, GOP candidate for County Board

In Arlington, the former GOP Chairman Mark Kelly is running against Democrat Chris Zimmerman, who is seeking a forth full term (total of 18 years. He was first elected in 1996 in a special election.)

Even though Arlington hasn’t exactly been on the minds of the statewide GOP in some time, this year is different. With 2010 being such a big GOP year, a strong showing in a place such as Arlington County would really send a message. Arlington and Virginia as a whole face similar problems, but are governed completely differently. In Arlington, there is a debt of $1.12 billion, or about $5,345 for every county resident. While Bob McDonnell was able to turn a deficit into a surplus by cutting spending, Arlington usually responds with various tax hikes.

Another similar problem is transportation. To show you how local government truly impacts your day to day life, let’s use the Metro as an example. One of the reasons that I bring up transportation is the fact that Chris Zimmerman is serving on the Metro Board. It should be noted that he is the longest serving member and that he has been Chairman twice.

Metro, as anyone in the DC area knowns, is no where near perfect. Aside from safety issues, and shady worker contracts, it has horrrible customer service. It just added higher fares, as well as not allowing anyone to leave Metro stations with negative balances on their SmarTrip cards.

Aside from the dynamic issues that face Arlington County, there is a slightly less talked about factor making the race more interesting. During the summer months, I attended several events for Mark Kelly in which I heard people whispering about how they were focusing more time on helping Mark because of disappointment with the GOP nominee for Congress, Patrick Murray. While I am not making that up, whether or not these people are having a significant impact remains to be seen.

Either way, from a combination of all of these issues, it is an interesting race that needs to be looked at. During the first reporting period, Kelly just about caught up to Zimmerman’s cash on hand advantage. That alone is enough to turn heads.

A local Democrat – David Hill – penned an LTE to the Free Lance Star backing Krystal Ball, the Democrat who wants to defeat and replace Congressman Rob Wittman.

Hill (a genuinely decent fellow, BTW), opens his letter thusly:

Rep. Rob Wittman, a strong conservative, is in direct opposition to positions taken by Sens. Warner and Webb.  If you agree with the senators and disagree with Rep. Wittman, vote for Krystal Ball.

Read that last sentence again, carefully, “If you agree with the senators and disagree with Rep. Wittman, vote for Krystal Ball.”

Lest we forget, Warner (as a candidate) supported TARP, and Webb voted for it.  Wittman opposed it.  Warner and Webb voted for Democare; Wittman opposed it.  Warner and Webb voted to let the EPA impose anti-carbon “global warming” regulations; Wittman voted against cap-and-trade.

So by all means, “If you agree with the senators and disagree with Rep. Wittman, vote for Krystal Ball.”  I suspect most voters in the 1st District will, like me, vote to re-elect Wittman.

Cross-posted to VV and the Real Krystal Ball

Two years ago, national Democrats were feting Tom Periello’s 727-vote victory over popular incumbent Rep. Virgil Goode as evidence that, with the right candidate, Democrats can compete in even the reddest districts. Today, with scores of vulnerable incumbents to defend (even some senior incumbents in longtime Democratic districts) and fewer donors, the Democratic Party’s leadership is starting to rethink how it will allocate scarce resources in a manner to minimize its losses on November 2. Down 26-points in the most recent public poll, Rep. Tom Perriello is reportedly one of the candidates from whom the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is considering withdrawing its financial support. The reasons are not necessarily surprising.

This summer Rep. Perriello embarked on a townhall tour of every county in the 5th District that was plagued with missteps. Rep. Perriello initially refused to allow signs of any form to be brought into his townhall meetings citing the chilling effect signs have on civil discourse. The Charlottesville-based Jefferson Area Tea Party protested the congressman’s sign ban and, after threats of legal action from the Rutherford Institute, Rep. Perriello relented. Next, at a stop at Ferrum College, Rep. Perriello insisted that his vote for “Stimulus II” was necessary to prevent the Virginia General Assembly from imposing “a very costly tax hike” to keep teachers employed. Now, at a recent Perriello rally, Sen. Jim Webb publicly stated his opposition to Rep. Perriello’s position on Cap-and-Trade.

Perhaps sensing that the townhalls and campaign rallies were not going as well as expected, Rep. Perriello attempted to re-brand himself as a “[Ross] Perot-style Democrat” while formally calling for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s resignation.

Though he has changed the rhetoric, Treasury Secretary Geithner has too often championed President Bush’s economic priorities…. …The change many of us fought for in 2008 runs a lot deeper than changing the name plate on the door from Paulson to Geithner. I hope that President Obama will find the Arne Duncan of economic development, a visionary with ‘on the ground’ experience creating jobs.

Rep. Perriello’s statement on Sec. Geithner goes on to tout his dedication to rebuilding Main Street via “reinvestment” (a.k.a. the stimulus), which he asserts created–not saved or created but created–3 million jobs. Unfortunately, while supporting the Stimulus, Cap-and-Trade and Obamacare (which, unlike state Sen. Robert Hurt, Rep. Perriello still refuses to defund), Rep. Perriello does not appear to share Ross Perot’s concern for the deficit, which will soon affect everyone who still works on Main Street.

When you make numerous missteps during the summer and your state’s senior senator publicly disagrees with you while campaigning for you, the DCCC’s decision to divest only gets easier.

Not Larry Sabato has the details.

This just strikes me as odd, especially if it came in the form of an official campaign email.

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The September Issue of Virginia Politics on Demand takes a look at Education in Virginia. Education often is seen as a national issue, represented through a debate on whether the federal government has the right to set policy, and to what extent. Often lost is the role of the states in determining how best to educate our children. It’s ironic that states and localities generally have the most direct control over public education, yet they are often neglected when we discuss education.

Read all the articles online at our magazine page.

Now that we are past the Labor Day traditional start of the fall campaign swing, it is evident to me that it’s time Kenny Golden made the race for the Second District a one-on-one race.

Let’s get the easy questions out of the way. Will Golden win? No. Not even close. Will Golden win enough to play spoiler? If the current wave sustains, and I think it most assuredly will grow, Glenn Nye is toast no matter what Golden does.

Golden isn’t hurting Rigell, and he isn’t hurting the Second District. But his being in the race is keeping Democratic Party interest and money in this seat, and thus more Republican Party money spent to win it.

At this point, money is a zero sum game. Money spent here means some other district gets less. Virginia House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith is within striking distance of entrenched incumbent Rep. Rick Boucher. The second the Democrats see a poll of Rigell vs. Nye alone, they’ll triage Nye right off a cliff, and Republicans can give Griffith the resources to pick up that seat.

If not Griffith, then some other seat that could be a GOP pickup with the right amount of resources will get help.

Bottom line: If we’re interested in taking back Congress and stopping Obama’s agenda cold, these are things that need to happen.

I’ve liked Kenny Golden a long time. There was a rough and tumble primary that he should’ve stayed a part of, and he has a good resume on defense issues. But the bottom line is most voters will never know it because Golden can’t afford to tell them about it. He’s doing a disservice to voters by courting their support with so insufficient a message machine.

Golden made his point. But compared to what’s going on in the nation, and what his point-making is costing us in not just this race, but in others that could turn the tide, Golden’s point is comparatively rather dull.

In two debates, he truly added no real reason for him to be there. Democrats have enough trouble wondering why they have Nye. Kenny’s assertion that they’ll vote for a former GOP chairman who still holds the same views he always had in the GOP camp is simply silly.

But as long as Golden’s impact was restricted to the Second District race, I bit my tongue. If Golden wanted to end his career saying “nyah, nyah” to people who didn’t endorse him by spoiling things for the guy they did, it’s his career.

But Golden’s windmill charge is now not only folly, but damaging to good Republicans in other districts who did nothing to Golden or anyone else.

That’s wrong, and it should give Golden pause to reflect and, I hope, to decide to exit the race and help recapture Congress.

Happy Labor Day!

I’ve used this weekend to catch up on some much need rest, housekeeping chores, and go hiking and to the theater with my date. And, of course, there was the traditional picnic: hot-dogs, cheeseburgers, potato salad, coleslaw, brownies and banana pudding.

For many of us who are employed, Labor Day is a welcome break from our work routines. Some may even remember the achievements of organized laborers, who fought for more humane working conditions and reasonable hours in a time before standard labor laws, the EEOC, OSHA, and Workman’s Compensation. Others look forward to football games and the kids being back in school.

But for many Virginians, Labor Day is just one more day without a paycheck and without any meaningful work to do. In August, unemployment nationwide climbed to 9.6%. Virginia’s unemployment rate stood at 7% in July. Our better condition is partly due to the high availability of stable government and government-dependent jobs, particularly in Northern Virginia and partly due to Governor McDonnell’s business friendly policies.

Even for those who are employed, times are hard. Housing values are down and many owe more than their house is worth. Some have taken foregone raises in order to keep their jobs and others are underemployed. We know because economic hardship affects our neighbors… and us.

More have to depend on charity – or government assistance. Yet private charities are struggling to get by on less too.

Small government conservatives believe charity begins at home – caring for your family – and then in the community, caring for those who are less able to care for themselves. What better place to start than with local food banks.

September is National Hunger Action month and there are plenty of inexpensive ways we can help families in need.

One of the best ways you can help is by finding your local food bank and volunteer or donate a meal.
Check out:
Foodbank of Southeastern Virginia
Blue Ridge Area Food Bank
Capital Area Food Bank (Northern Virginia and DC)
Central Virginia Food Bank
Fredericksburg Area Food Bank
Foodbank of the Virginia Penninsula
Feeding America: Southwest Virginia

Many corporations and businesses are also participating in hunger relief drives this month.

Wal-Mart is donating $2 billion dollars and they have plenty of ways you can help them fight hunger – even on Facebook.

Your local grocery store may also provide easy ways for you to help feed the hungry.

Share how you are helping in the comments or let us know what your Virginia business is doing!

• Ron Paul On Fox Business: Our Greek-Style Day Of Reckoning Is Coming
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Advice conservatives can only hope is taken by Democratic candidates from former part-time Virginia governor now full-time Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine:

Kaine has a message for Democrats trying to run from President Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid: Don’t be foolish.

“If you run away from who you are and you’re a Democrat, it’s foolish,” Kaine said on “Fox News Sunday.” “It’s foolish because you’ve got a lot to be proud of.”

Proud of double-digit unemployment? A $13 trillion debt? The dismantling of health-care? Increasing taxes? An energy policy that punishes our energy sector?

Yep – a lot to be proud of. Please, run on that.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch previewed both the 2nd and 5th Congressional races recently saying the 2nd has much to do with military voting and the closure of Joint Forced Command (JFCOM) and the 5th is about “voter anxiety”.

In the 2nd, RTD points to military voting as part of the problem for Nye, but likely hits at his biggest issue later in the article — not being in a voting cycle with an Obama or Warner at the top of the ticket and alienating his base with his votes on key bills:

Quentin Kidd, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, said Nye was in political trouble before the Joint Forces Command uproar because of the bad economy and because he has voted against the Obama administration so many times that he has alienated the Democratic base.

Nye voted for the stimulus package and for financial regulatory reform. But he voted against Obama in opposing the health-care bill and cap-and-trade legislation meant to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

“I think the people appreciate an independent-minded representative who doesn’t vote along party lines,” says Nye, a member of the Blue Dog coalition of conservative Democrats in Congress.

Nye may be correct in that assumption, but he may have not been in office long enough to behave that way. In the still conservative 2nd, in a mid-term year, Nye needs as much enthusiasm from his base as he can get to overcome an energized GOP – but that base has yet to materialize.

Of the 5th, RTD notes that economic conditions, particularly in the distressed areas of Martinsville and Danville, will play a role in this race. They also point out that there may be a “lesser of two evils” feeling amongst the electorate. However, in a nutshell, the article says of the campaign that:

“Perriello hopes to at least hold his 727-vote margin. In a limping economy. With pervasive voter anxiety.

“Perriello’s Republican opponent, state Sen. Robert Hurt of Pittsylvania County, is seizing upon that  dynamic, painting Perriello as a lock-step party loyalist to the Obama administration who is out of touch with the district.”

The bottom-line: it’s still the economy and jobs driving the electorate; an economy that has only gotten worse under the leadership of Nancy Pelosi and Congressional Democrats.

On Thursday, SurveyUSA released its most recent poll of the 5th District race showing state Sen. Robert Hurt increasing his lead over Rep. Tom Perriello. Yesterday, SurveyUSA followed up with a new poll of the 9th District race, which also showed the Republican candidate gaining ground on an incumbent Democrat. Since SurveyUSA’s last poll of the 9th was conducted six weeks ago, Del. Morgan Griffith has gained three percentage points, but still trails Rep. Rick Boucher by ten points. Although he does not lead the race, Griffith must be pleased that he is holding a generally popular, 28-year incumbent to just 50 percentage points, perhaps Rep. Boucher’s worst polling position since taking his seat in Congress. Del. Griffith also appears to have momentum, gaining three percentage points—all at Rep. Boucher’s expense.

The most troubling aspect of this poll (for Griffith) is that he is losing 25 percent of self-described Republicans to Boucher. Rep. Boucher is widely perceived as a moderate, especially after his vote against Obamacare, but in spite of his role in drafting Cap-and-Trade legislation that would devastate the coal industry. Rep. Boucher’s television ads remind voters that, since he is from the “Fighting 9th,” he understands the values of the district’s residents and is best positioned to represent those values in Washington. Ironically, then, despite the fact that the Obama-Biden ticket was trounced in the 9th in 2008, Rep. Boucher has voted for the Obama-Pelosi-Reid agenda just over 96 percent of the time. As 9th District Republicans are reminded of Rep. Boucher’s penchant for saying one thing in Washington County and doing another in Washington, D.C., Del. Griffith could very easily see his numbers continue to rise.

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In his latest Cyrstal Ball (not to be confused with the 1st District candidate with questionable finances) UVA Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato currently projects that Republicans will gain as many as 47 house seats, 9 senate seats and 9 governorships.

That gives the Republicans control of the House, and a good step up towards the next redistricting cycle, but doesn’t quite take the Senate.

Although Sabato does note that in the 6 times since World Ward II that the House of Representatives has flipped, the Senate has as well.

Sabato notes:

Overall, though, a strong bet is that 2010 will generate a substantial pendulum swing from the Democrats to the Republicans. It is not that Republicans are popular—most polls show the party even less liked than the Democrats. Many observers find it amazing that the less-liked party is on the verge of triumphing over the better-liked party. Nevertheless, in the time-honored American way, voters will be inclined to punish the party in-power by checking and balancing it with more members from the opposition party.

This year has hope and change all over it.

Glenn Nye’s campaign released their new ad today, virtually a complete 180 turn-around from their much (and justly) criticized first ad. Contrasted with Rigell’s ad, where Rigell spoke directly to the camera, Nye’s lame attempt at a first ad was all voiceover, with the requisite ‘I approved this ad’ at the conclusion. Rigell’s ad was far more personal, not to mention Nye’s ludicrous claim that he voted against the bailout, despite not being in office for the vote. Nye’s team apparently quickly realized they would lose the message battle (thankfully for them it came before Labor Day) and went with a new approach. Admittedly, far more effective then his first go around.

Survey USA has updated its well-publicized (and somewhat questioned) poll on the 5th District Congressional race.  Back in July, the polling group had Robert Hurt up a whopping 23 points on incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello.  It was widely assumed that the gap would shrink – and probably wasn’t that large anyway.

Well, if Survey USA is an outlier, they’re doubling down: the new poll has Hurt up 26 points.

FWIW, when it comes to Virginia elections, Survey USA was the first pollster to notice Tim Kaine leading Jerry Kilgore (Kaine won by 6 points) and the first one to see a landslide sweep for the GOP ticket last year (all won by more than a dozen points).  It also has a larger sample than the AAF poll from a couple of weeks ago which had Hurt up only six.

The battle among the pollsters could be almost as interesting as the one among the candidates.

Cross-posted to BD

As if the legislature cancelling insurance coverage of their Viagra wasn’t enough to make DMV workers even more cranky than usual, now they have to work on a holiday weekend. Governor McDonnell announced this afternoon that, due to the recent computer problems, DMV offices will be open this weekend on Saturday, Sunday and yes, on Labor Day.

McDonnell said:

“It is imperative that we take every step necessary to assist Virginians inconvenienced by the recent computer issues that impacted 13% of the Commonwealth’s file servers. In order to assist Virginians who need to return to the DMV for a license I have ordered select customer service centers to open this Sunday, as well as on Labor Day. In addition, our centers will also have extended hours the following weekend. We have also acted administratively to help Virginians who have been unable to renew their licenses over the past week by extending existing licenses for an additional 20 days. State and local law enforcement agencies have been notified of this extension.”

Below are the details of the additional Labor Day weekend DMV hours.

Friday, September 3 All locations open until 6:00 p.m.
Saturday, September 4 All locations open 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.
Fourteen* locations remaining open from 12:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Sunday, September 5 Fourteen* locations open 1:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
Monday, September 6 Fourteen* locations open 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m.

For more detailed information about DMV hours, addresses and directions go to www.dmvNOW.com

*The 14 DMV locations that will have extended hours Saturday, Sunday and Monday:
Abingdon, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Chesapeake, Chesterfield, Fair Oaks (10:30 to 6:30), Hampton, Harrisonburg, Leesburg, Lynchburg, Richmond-Broad Street, Roanoke, Virginia Beach- Buckner, and Woodbridge

During the mid-20th century many American cities and towns were suffering under the injustice of discrimination. In many cases government authorities were forcing businesses to segregate their facilities and services. Many public facilities across the country were segregated. It was in the midst of all of this that Dr. Martin Luther King, stood up in the face of tyranny and demanded justice. One of his most memorable quotes was that, “injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.” Dr. King was persistent in his fight to secure justice.

In today’s time there is another violation of justice in America. This injustice is found in the form of abortion. Millions of unborn babies have been denied equal protection under the law based on their status in life. This is an injustice that has put a stain on our nation.

However, just as  Martin Luther King stood up for justice and civil rights in his time, a new generation of civil rights leaders have arisen to stand for justice in this time. One of the most vocal voices has been that of Dr. King’s niece Dr. Alveda King. Dr. King recently spoke at the rally on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial and gave a stirring speech calling for a revival of our God given liberties. Day Gardner, President of the National Black Pro-Life Union, has written a powerful column describing Dr. King’s historic speech. The speech was a clarion call for the new justice movement. It emphasized the need for Americans to not look at themselves in terms of racial divisions, but rather she exhorted us to look at ourselves in terms of the “human race.” The speech was truly historic.

A new civil rights movement is emerging in America today. This movement is seeking to extend the blessings of liberty to all people, including the unborn. It is not an attempt to “hijack” the original civil rights movement. Rather, it is taking the principles of liberty and justice from the original movement and is applying them to all of today’s challenges.

This new and exciting movement is not limited by race. It does not see White, Black, Hispanic, or any other race , but rather envisions a “human race.” This new justice movement is a powerful force in the American political scene. At its core it understands the principle that “injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”

(cross posted at the Freedom Federation network)

Survey USA has updated its well-publicized (and somewhat questioned) poll on the 5th District Congressional race. Back in July, the polling group had Robert Hurt up a whopping 23 points on incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello. It was widely assumed that the gap would shrink – and probably wasn’t that large anyway.

Well, if Survey USA is an outlier, they’re doubling down: the new poll has Hurt up 26 points.

FWIW, when it comes to Virginia elections, Survey USA was the first pollster to notice Tim Kaine leading Jerry Kilgore (Kaine won by 6 points) and the first one to see a landslide sweep for the GOP ticket last year (all won by more than a dozen points). It also has a larger sample than the AAF poll from a couple of weeks ago which had Hurt up only six.

The battle among the pollsters could be almost as interesting as the one among the candidates.

Cross-posted to RWL

What a problem to have in your first few months. Media around the Commonwealth have been covering the outage of state computer servers for well over a week.

Among those state agencies affected the worst were DMV, who had trouble issuing license renewals, and the Department of Social Services, where briefly there was concern that benefits would be delayed. Also affected were the Departments of Taxation, Juvenile Justice, and Environmental Quality. The State Board of Elections and VITA (who runs the system!) were also on that list.

Now, according to today’s RTD, Senior lawmakers want an independent investigation of the problem. Governor McDonnell has also called for an “independent third party” to investigate.

Former Chesterfield Delegate Sam Nixon was appointed to be Chief Information Officer of the Virginia Information Technologies Agency just this past March. In part, Nixon was appointed because the VITA/Northrop Grumman partnership has been replete with problems from the beginning.

With the latest problems resting on his doorstep, one has to wonder if Nixon wouldn’t prefer to be back in his safely Republican house district.

Assuming, that is, that the State Board of Elections could find his records.

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Jeff Clark, independent congressional candidate in the 5th District, has a problem: Debt.

Of course, Clark is like most Americans who struggle with this endemic problem.

According to creditcards.com, which tracks these sorts of statistics, Americans who have credit cards carry a balance of nearly $16,000 and the total U.S. consumer debt is $2.4 trillion. (Not to mention the over $40,000 each taxpayer now owes for our federal government’s spending spree)

So what does this have to do with Clark?

On August 28, the Daily Progress ran a story detailing Clark’s woes with personal finance showing that he declared bankruptcy in 1993 and has a history of health care-related debt in the 1980’s.

Clark, who is a Tea Party activist, however, says that his experience with debt, and its financial ramifications, gives him a greater appreciation for what 5th District voters are facing during this recession.

That’s all well and good, but it’s a subjective argument – not one which may bring him many votes. However, what should be of concern to Hurt is that the mere appearance of bullying brings Clark – a candidate with little chance of winning – empathy.

Clark, again, is an independent. While he is an active member of the tea party, his status is not the same as a Paul (R-KY), Miller (R-AK) or Angle (R-NV), who all won the backing of independent, conservative Republicans to win the GOP nomination.

By being a true independent, the only role Clark might play right now is that of spoiler in the general election between the Republican, Robert Hurt, and Democratic incumbent, Tom Perriello. And, the most likely person that Clark will damage in the race is the Republican – as evidenced by the recent tea party insurgence.

The tea party is a conservative movement, so it stands to reason that when candidates run with a tea party association, they are either dynamically changing the GOP from within or are a threat to peel votes away in the general. It’s one of the reasons 2nd District GOP nominee Scott Rigell has attempted to reconcile with the movement.

This reality, of the tea party being conservative and loosely associated with the GOP, makes it interesting that Clark was approached by Mark Lloyd of the Lynchburg Tea Party not long ago and asked to drop out of the race because of rumors that Clark’s past debt might come to light during the course of the campaign.

Why would the tea party want Clark out of the race?

According to the Daily Progress:

“If [the person who tipped off the media regarding Clark’s debt] steps forward, explains how they came into possession of these documents and says who paid for them, we will drop our candidacy,” Clark said.

In order to drop out, Clark said, certain conditions must first be met. The person or persons who tipped off the media, he said, must reveal themselves, must say how they came in possession of the documents, disclose if they were compensated, reveal any political or campaign affiliation and say on whose behalf they gathered the information.

Because the 5th District is such a close race between Perriello and Hurt, the Republican will need all the votes he can get. While both the Hurt and Perriello campaigns have declined to comment on this issue, the most likely person wanting Clark out of the race is Hurt.

The likelihood of the tipster coming out is unlikely. However, given Clark’s play, is it possbile now that this will boomerang on the Hurt campaign, regardless of whether they were involved or not? Instead of Clark being damaged by the revelations, will he be now seen as a martyr – the guy who has the same problems as millions of Americans – facing an uphill climb against that which the tea party has labeled the Murkowski’s of the world: the national GOP insiders? Will voters of the 5th District begin to sympathize with Clark?

Whether or not Hurt was involved, I would certainly not want to be on the side of “no comment.” And, rightly or wrongly, Hurt may be blamed for this as the politics of personal destruction.

I must confess, I missed the president’s speech – and not by accident.  I didn’t think the “end of combat operations in Iraq” was worth a speech anyhow, what with 50,000 troops still there.  Moreover, the question of whether Obama would ignore Bush’s “surge” (I put it in quotes because it was more than just that) or try to take credit for it was answered as I expected: he attempted both and accomplished neither.

What mattered to me were his comments on Afghanistan, and once again, he disappointed (speech reprinted in NRO - The Corner):

And, next July, we will begin a transition to Afghan responsibility. The pace of our troop reductions will be determined by conditions on the ground, and our support for Afghanistan will endure. But make no mistake: this transition will begin – because open-ended war serves neither our interests nor the Afghan people’s.

It all sounds so reasonable, until we remember that the enemy also has something to say about the length and breadth of a war.

Keep in mind, the current timetable on Iraq comes from an agreeement between the two countries last year.  It sent a message that Iraq was, at best, ready to take the burden on its own and, at worst, confident that it could do so by the end of 2011.

The July 2011 date for the beginning of the end in Afghanistan was imposed on the Afghan people from Washington (much to their dismay).  It sends no message of confidence, but rather one of exhaustion.  It sends the message that the Taliban can run out the clock on the Afghan people (government and anti-Taliban political opposition) – the same Taliban that welcomed, embraced, and all-but-merged with al Qaeda prior to 9/11/01.

The president doesn’t seem to understand this, which is why his speech was yet another disappointment.

Cross-posted to VV

This interview should provide Keith Fimian with material for a commercial or three:

H/T: Not Larry Sabato

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Ad hominem criticisms are touchy matters: they can get personal and irrelevant very quickly, and as such can badly distract from the issue at hand.  One must be very careful with them, and make sure any to be used are, in fact, germane.

I say this because (as you, dear readers, may have guessed) I am about to engage in one against retired Judge Paul Peatross – the jurist who recently ruled in the matter of Ken Cuccinelli’s Climategate probe of UVa and Michael Mann.  For the most part, Peatross’ ruling was bad news.  Although he did leave open a road for Cuccinelli to press on, he all but stated he thought Cuccinelli couldn’t win.  Lefty blogs have been rejoicing ever since.

Yesterday, though, Chris Horner noted something about His Honor Mr. Peatross that put the entire thing in a new and different light (Big Govt., emphasis in original):

 Before the hearing commenced Peatross, substituting for the vacationing chief judge, cited his wife’s 1982 degree in environmental science from UVA – oddly, he then said “but not in global warming” — as part of a rather spare recitation of why he was hearing of this case (which he attested he had never heard about until reading the briefs that morning. A prominent case in the local, state and national news assigned to his old court! This man takes his retirement seriously…), and articulating his history so that counsel might decide whether he carried any conflict such that he should not hear the University’s motion.

That fact of her 1982 degree from Mann’s former Department, apparently, was relevant. Okay. But…

The fact that the judge’s wife had in fact previously worked in that Department of Environmental Sciences — the very Department that stands to suffer should he have ruled in favor of the Attorney General – was somehow not worth disclosing to counsel.

I only learned of this after the hearing by others who had also worked at the same time Ms. Peatross did, in messages expressing astonishment that her husband would decide such a matter given the obvious appearance of an inability to objectively hear it.

Also not worth disclosing was that Ms. Peatross’s relationships go much deeper, being, e.g., lauded for her role in producing a book edited by the Department’s then-chairman during Mann’s alleged hijinks, as well as, it appears, at least two of his papers.

Now, to be completely accurate, it is an open question whether Ms. Peatross worked for the Department of Environmental Sciences, or simply in the building, physically (which I am told with no doubts that she did), for one of two particular former colleagues of Mann’s (and one supervisor at the relevant times) in their consultancies. The latter response, if it were the case, would beg other questions about mixing research and consulting. Which is to say, there is no good answer to the question. Which may be why the University refused to answer it when I asked. Four times.

So, we have a judge who is married to a woman who worked in the same University Department that employed Mann – either as a direct employee of the Department or as part of a consultancy of a colleague of Mann - and thus whose career and credibility would be directly affected by the case over which he presides . . . and he doesn’t tell anyone.

I’d call that germane.

I’m also far more certain that Cuccinelli will not only take the road Judge Peatross left him, but also appeal the parts of the ruling that did not go his way.  Given the information above, he really has no choice, IMHO.

Cross-posted to VV